f n'i* AGRICULTURE, LAND AND URBANIZATION LAND DYNAMICS IN THE URBAN FRINGE ROAD TRAFFIC OUTDOOR RECREATION OPPORTUNITY LAND USE CHANGE IN THE URBAN FRINGE MONTREAL CBD OTTAWA-HULL URBAN CHANGE ACREAGE CHANGE IN FARMLAND POPULATION Glasgow TOUfFVILLE Altona 'icksons Hill Claremont MONTRE, MONTREAL GEORGIAN BAY Brougham MARKHAM LAKE HURON Whitevale TORONTO TORONTO 1961-1971 Glasgow LAND USE Altona <icksons~dii Claremont. ixrrfu\'<VRM Whitevale LAKE HURON LAKE ONTARIO U/iissis. TORONTO HD a o mi !Waterlo) nnntf™ Hi 111 KITCHENE HAMILTON ^<'7ST. CATHARINES ONDON mmmmui LAKE ERIE Urban Affairs Canada and Environment Canada Affaires urbaines Canada et Environnement Canada LAND PARCEL Wendy Simpson Lewis This map was prepared in response to shared interest and concern with urbanization and land. The project was commissioned and funded by the federal Ministry of State for Urban Affairs, and the map was researched, designed and produced by the Lands Directorate, Department of the Environment. In a country encompassing 3,560,238 square miles of land, it is difficult to understand that land is in fact a limited, unique and extremely valuable resource for which there is no substitute. At a time of increasing urbanization, land use conflicts and frequent land misuse, it may be appro priate to summarize some of the existing information concerning the nature of the impact of urbanization on land. Private OWNERSHIP 1972 Although urbanization has advanced steadily since the mid 1800s, the most dramatic decades have been the most recent. The demand for jobs and social amenities provided in the cities, combined with the desire to live in a country atmosphere, have produced vertically-rising city centres, horizontally-sprawling suburbs, and a fleet of commuters. But urbanization and asso ciated technical innovations have had as great an impact on the land, as on the people. Urbaniza tion has involved one of the most striking cases of land conversion in Canadian history and no where is this more evident than in the area between Windsor and Quebec City. The Windsor- Quebec Axis is a dynamic region and as such it is an arena for conflict between intensifying urban pressures and other land uses. What happens along the axis in the future, as in the past, cannot fail to affect all Canadians. Nevertheless, the actual character of the Windsor-Quebec Axis has not been the subject of much detailed study. The axis is often thought to be a highly congested, densely populated region but, in reality, it is an area with extremely diverse physical, social and economic characteristics. Research assistance was provided by Valerie Cranmer and Susan Williams of the Lands Directorate, Department of the Environment. Dr. C.I. Jackson of the Ministry of State for Urban Affairs contributed helpful advice during the course of the project and was a valuable liaison between MSUA and DOE. Corporate Resident Cartography and assistance in map design by Cartographic Services, Resources Mapping Division, Lands Directorate, Department of the Environment. Metro Toronto OWNERSHIP 1972 Other Copies in English or French may be obtained from the Canada Map Office, Department of Energy, Mines and Resources, 615 Booth Street, Ottawa, Canada, K1A 0E9. Map ELD-3/Price $3.00. This map represents one attempt to improve awareness of the nature of this region of Canada. Such a cartographic approach inevitably tends to emphasize the spatial similarities and con trasts within the axis; those elements of its landscape, economy and society that cannot easily be represented within the limitations of a wall map format therefore fend to be neglected. En vente, en anglais ou frangais, au Bureau des Cartes du Canada, Ministere de I'Energie, des Mines et des Ressources, 615 rue Booth, Ottawa, Canada, K1A0E9. Carte ELD-3/Prix $3.00. MOST RECENT SALE PRICE 1968-1972 (price per acre at last sale) PARC DES LAURENTIDES This inset shows the volume of daily traffic on the main and secondary roads in Ontario, and on some main roads of Quebec. This annual average daily traffic represents the total two-way traffic occurring in 24 hours on the average day of the year 1970. Because the figure used is an average, the seasonal and daily cycles that exist on all roads are obscured. Summer traffic flows for example, include a high proportion of recreational and social travel, and are often twice the annual daily average. This traffic density pattern is superimposed on a highway isochrone pattern, showing the travel time in hours, by road, under normal circumstances from Toronto or Montreal. The white patches on the map indicate the absence of a main road network. The isochrone patterns for Toronto and Montreal were prepared independently by different people who used different provincial data sources. Because slightly dissimilar assumptions were incorporated into the cal culations, the isolines provide a general indication of travel time patterns but should not be compared in absolute terms. The dominance of the two major centres of Montreal and Toronto is immediately apparent. The importance of the sub-region centred around Toronto over-shadows the rest of the province in terms of traffic density, although traffic volumes increase on the radial roads around all the major urban centres in the corridor. These increases reflect both the traffic attraction of these centres and the commuter trips generated in the vicinity of the centres. London, located 105 miles southwest of Toronto, has an especially strong influence on the traffic flow pattern, with higher densities than the general trend would indicate for a radius of about 40 miles to the south and east. The most important element in the transportation network of the corridor is the relatively simple system of multi-lane limited access highways running primarily along the northeast-south west axis. This system emphasizes the narrow linear character of the corridor, which results in the logical choice of route between major city pairs usually traversing other major centres. The freeway system has contributed considerably to the high degree of integration evident in the transportation network of the region. Within the Windsor-Quebec corridor, about half the total traffic travels by car, compared to a national average of 85 per cent. Conversely, public transportation captures a higher proportion of the market in this region than it does on average across Canada. The explanation for this lies in the fact that the concentration of population makes possible a reasonably frequent service by common carrier that competes favourably with the private automobile. Road traffic is growing, on average, approximately 5 per cent annually (faster than this on the freeway), a rate of increase that has held steady over much of the last decade. Truck traffic is an important component of total highway traffic since Kitchener, Guelph and Brantford in Ontario, are important trucking centres. Short distance moves predominate, a range within which trucks maintain a competitive advantage over rail and air freight. There is a rapid distance decay effect on truck transportation. Volumes of truck traffic remain relatively constant throughout the year, but they decrease in proportion to the total traffic in summer, usually ranging between 5 and 25 per cent of the total in that season. Recreational traffic increases sharply in summer, particularly in vacation-oriented areas such as the Muskokas and Lac Champlain. Data Sources* and References Canada, Canadian Transport Commission, Research Branch, Intercity Passenger Transport Study, Queen's Printer, Ottawa, 1970. Dean, W.G., ed., and G.J. Matthews, Economic Atlas of Ontario, University of Toronto Press, Toronto, 1969.* Found, W.C., and C.D. Morley, A Conceptual Approach to Rural Land Use Transportation Model ling in the Toronto Region, University of Toronto-York University Joint Program in Transporta tion, Research Report No. 8, Toronto, 1972. QUEBEC, QUEBEC Ontario, Department of Transportation and Communications, Annual Average Daily Traffic on the King's Highway and Secondary Highways in Ontario, 1970, Toronto, n.d.* LAND PRICE CHANGES 1968-1972 (based on properties sold 2 or more times) Quebec, Ministere de la Voirie, Recensement de la Circulation sur les Routes du Qudbec, Quebec, n.d.* Of critical importance are the rural and urban fringe areas which are in many cases under going rapid change. Transportation links with urban centres have often been considered a key factor in determining the degree of urban influence. Significant alterations in traffic patterns and volumes occur as rural areas become more urban-oriented, and as access to these rural areas, for housing, industry and recreation purposes, generates additional pressures. Land use and the users themselves are now more frequently considered as measures of the urban influence, and traffic characteristics will depend on the mix of various land uses. Interest and concern has long been expressed with regard to the socio-economic impact of urbanization on the rural people, the life style and the land resource. What is the nature of the role played by transportation net works in the process of social and land use changes? TROIS- JJIVIERES TROIS- RIVIERES Simmons. J.W., 3atterns of Interaction Within Ontario and Quebec. University of Toronto Centre for Urban and Community Studies, Research Paper No. 41, Toronto, 1970. 199% AREA OF FARMLAND PARC T MONT-TREMBLANTy, L 400% OUTDOOR RECREATION OPPORTUNITY QUOTIENT SCALE 1:2,200,000 (Approximately) 0 25 50 NUMBER OF LAND TRANSACTIONS 1968-1972 Kilometres 25 100 Kilometres SHERBROOKE, SHERBROOKI OTTAWA OTTAWA Provincial Park Campgrounds USKOKA AVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFIC Vehicles Per Day National Park Campgrounds HALIBURTON NUMBER OF FARMS Greenwood CORNWALL 96000 64000 32000 16000 Upon inspection, the map reveals two obvious trends. The general influence of the American population lying to the south and west, which places a blanket of population pressure over the entire study area, decreases to the north and east. This is most evident in the Windsor-Chatham area, but is also noticeable in the Niagara Peninsula and southeastern Quebec. The effects of the large urban centres of Montreal and Toronto are revealed by the east-west extent of the poorly served areas adjacent to them. As can be seen from the map, ridges of high opportunity lie to the northwest of Kitchener-Waterloo, to the north of Peterborough and Kingston, and generally to the north of the study area. These are broken by areas of lower opportunity appearing in the area between Kingston and Ottawa, and around Kingston itself. The high values of the Algonquin Park site reflect the relative abundance of recreation land and the comparative lack of population in that area, while in the Muskoka-Haliburton region, the pressure of the cities to the immediate south holds down the quotient, although it is considerably above that of the Lake Ontario shore area. Similarly, the area of relatively high opportunity in the northern region of the Quebec portion on the map, reflects the potential for recreation that is available, especially to residents of Ottawa- Hull, Montreal, Trois-Rivi6res, and Quebec City, as provided by such parks as Mont-Tremblant, Papineau, and Laurentides. The measurement of intangible concepts, such as recreation opportunity, is exceedingly complex and plagued by both theoretical and practical problems. Many of the questions and assumptions inherent in the gravitational approach employed here are being dealt with in present research projects which have yet to be reported. It is believed, however, that the foregoing method ology presents a reasonably accurate portrayal of recreation opportunity in the Windsor-Quebec study area. Today, all types of pressure are exerted on the urban dweller. Crowding, crime, pollution, traffic congestion and innumerable other frustrations are associated with urbanization. People are looking to the country for fresh air, open space and recreation opportunity. However, recreation activities such as camping, hiking, biking, downhill and cross-country skiing and snowmobiling require land, and recreation frequently faces competition from other uses for this resource. The demand for recreational land is increasing dramatically, and competition among users of existing recreation areas is such that certain sites suffer from the same crowding and pollution problems the vacationers seek to escape. At the present time there does not appear to be sufficient recrea tional land to satisfy the particular needs of over 10,000,000 urban dwellers in the Windsor- Quebec axis. Recently, however, several interesting techniques of partially resolving this situation have been suggested. Ontario has proposed a multi-purpose parkway belt system designed to provide open space and recreation opportunity for urban residents and to reserve certain land for future use, in addition to preventing uncontrolled urban sprawl and linking communities via service corridors. Preservation of at least portions of unique features such as the Niagara Escarpment is essential for recreation as well as other purposes. What other decisions must be made, and what action taken, to ensure the quantity and variety of recreational land resources necessary to meet future requirements? 8000 4000 PARCEL SIZE IN ACRES OWEN iSOUND SCALE 1:50,000 PETERBOROUGH BARRIE KINGSTQN Metres 1000 2000 3000 Metres This figure is referred to as the population potential. This equation can be modified to incorporate the population potential exerted by all population centres within a certain distance.2 The popula tion potential at any point is: The use of valuable agricultural land for urban development is a well-established phenomenon, especially in the fringe areas of major cities. An examination of ownership and market character istics of individual land parcels in the vicinity of the proposed site for the new Toronto Airport revealed land undergoing conversion from rural to urban uses, together with widespread diversity and change in land use patterns and activities. This map illustrates that portion of the 170,000 acre study area which immediately surrounds the 18,000 acre Airport Site. Most of the land in the study area is designated as Class 1 for agriculture. The map provides a spatial distribution of privately and corporately owned parcels of land. The extent of corporate ownership is underestimated due to data limitations; it is suspected that many individuals purchasing land were in fact acting as agents for corporations. Despite this, corporate ownership stands out clearly as an important factor, especially within the largest parcel size class. A predominance of corporate ownership is noted in Markham Township and to the northeast of the town of Markham, an area of a recent abortive private land assembly. The many linear concentrations of private ownership in the two smallest parcel size classes reflect the great increase in small residential holdings throughout the study area. Examination of the map reveals widespread non-resident ownership. For the purpose of this research, non-residents were described as parcel owners who live elsewhere than in the township containing that parcel. Hence, non-resident ownership is understated somewhat. It should be noted that many properties, although privately owned, have non-resident ownership. These smaller properties represent weekend and vacation retreats or undeveloped lots. Large properties in non-resident ownership tend to represent speculation properties. Many of the non-resident parcels over 50 acres in size that are also nominally in private ownership may, in fact, be held by agents acting on behalf of holding companies. The unit price of land is one of the most significant indicators of urbanization pressures. Professional land appraisers agree that good agricultural land in south central Ontario can com mand a price of approximately $700 per acre. Land prices in excess of this figure suggest higher uses associated with urbanization, uses which may reflect society's need for recreational, indus trial or residential space. In this study, sales for a few dollars consideration, inherited properties and sales of part interest in property were excluded. As seen, a relatively small number of parcels sold for a reasonable agricultural value of less than $1,000 per acre. Prices for larger parcels tend to reflect an expectation of imminent development and thus some of the highest unit prices are found near the towns of Markham and Stouffville. Unit prices for the smallest size class do not provide an accurate picture of raw land value. On these small properties the value of a modestly priced house dictates a high unit price for the total parcel. Also, the high demand for intermediate size sale parcels ensures a high unit value. The map also illustrates the spatial distribution of changes in land prices for multiple sale parcels within the period January 1968 to December 1972. Change in the unit price of land from the first sale to the last is quite varied. Caution should be used in interpreting high unit price changes for the smallest parcel size class. If the period between sales was longer than six months, appreciation of more than 100 per cent might suggest that a house had been built on previously vacant land. The fifth factor illustrated is the spatial distribution of the frequency of land transactions, 1968 through 1972. Befor: 1967, there was very little land sale activity within the study area. In the following four years, iand market activity increased as land for residential development with in Metropolitan Toronto became relatively scarce and expensive. This area, as any other under going strong urbanization p/essures, Is susceptible to considerable sales activity, partly the result of multiple sales of individual parcels. The role of speculation in multiple sales cannot be regarded as insignificant. In the study area, some land parcels changed hands twice within a period of weeks with sale price increases of as much as 100 per cent. Evidence gained from this and other research suggests that agricultural land prices will not be maintained under free market conditions. On the open market, prices of land have risen to levels two to four times those which could be supported by agricultural uses alone. This supports the hypothesis that the effects of urbanization are impairing and will continue to impair the viability of agriculture within the Airport study area. It was anticipated and substantiated that land market characteristics of properties within the 18,000 acre Airport Site would reflect land market characteristics common to the larger 170,000 acre study area. This is a good indication of what may be occurring in other urban fringe areas throughout Ontario and Quebec. Are the strong immediate economic arguments, which are advanced for the development of prime agricultural land for urban uses, sufficient to risk uncertain long-term environmental and social effects of such a trend? This inset was compiled from information presented on five original maps prepared by Dr. Larry R.G. Martin of the University of Waterloo, for the Department of the Environment. The text was abstracted from his report, Land Use Dynamics: The Toronto II Airport Study (Part I - Land Ownership and Market Analysis), to be published by the Lands Directorate, Department of the Environment. Special appreciation is expressed to Dr. Martin for his generous contribution of information and advice for both the Land Dynamics and Land Use Change insets. HIGHWAY ISOCHRONES (Road Hours) No information From Toronto to other Ontario points where Pj, P2, P3 are the populations of the population centres and Di, D2, D3 are their respective distances from this point. Because of the additional pressure put on Canadian recrea tional resources by visitors from the United States, the American influence was considered as a special factor. State populations, allocated to the centroids of the states, were added to the right hand side of the equation as if they were Canadian population centres. Calculation of the demand measure is followed by a determination of a supply measure termed the supply potential. The method employed is similar to that of finding the population potential. The supply of opportunity attributable to an individual recreation site is also assumed to decrease with distance. The simplest way of weighting the recreation sites, comparable to the weighting of population centres by their population, is to utilize the actual land area of each recreation site. There is a point to be considered with regard to using site area as a weight. The relationship be tween area and opportunity may not increase in direct proportion, in people's perception. In this case, instead of using the actual site area, the natural logarithm of area is utilized as a weight. This decision was reached after considering a law of psychology, Fechner's Law, which states that the human response to a stimulus does not increase linearly but rather logarithmically. What this means in terms of recreation areas is that people are generally unable to perceive the difference in area between two parks with only a proportionally small size difference. In using the natural logarithm, adjustment is made for this. In the case of two parks, one ten times the area of the other, the larger will be perceived as 3.3 times bigger, according to Fechner's Law. Similarly, if the ratio of the areas is 2.5:1, the perceived ratio is about 1.92:1. The practical effect of using Fechner's Law is that more weight is given to the smaller parks, and less to the larger. The supply potential at any point is expressed as: TOTAL CAPITAL VALUE (FARM) BOUNDARIES KI"^CH|NER- "WATERLOO KITCHENER WATERLOO STRATFORD •TRATFORD: County From Montreal to other Quebec points HAMILTON THARINES HAMILTON CATHARINES LONDOI LONDON Proposed Airport BRANTI SARNIA Urban Areas - Recreatiortists have long been aware that the residents of large metropolitan areas have relatively little opportunity to engage in many outdoor recreation activities. The accompanying map illustrates this, and also indicates the degree of disparity between various areas. The mapping of these Outdoor Recreation Opportunity Quotients reveals spatial inequities throughout the fsfudy area. Most noticeable among these are the areas of low opportunity adjacert to Toronto and Montreal, and in the Windsor-Chatham area. CHATHAM The recreation sites considered in this study were those recorded during the 1969 Canada Outdoor Recreation Demand Study (CORDS) Facility Inventory. They include National and Provincial Parks, picnic areas and recreation preserves, but do not include areas administered by local governments or conservation authorities. Gatineau Park is under the jurisdiction of the National Capital Commission and is not includ ed in this study. WINDSOR CHATHAM WINDSOR FARM POPULATION The contours of this map join points at which people have equal opportunity to engage in outdoor recreation activities on extra-urban sites owned either by the federal or provincial govern ments. 1 The contours are not based on elevations but rather on a measure termed the 'Outdoor Recreation Opportunity Quotient'. This quotient, designed to reflect both the supply of recreation opportunity and the pressure for use placed on recreation sites by people, is defined as being the ratio between measures of supply and demand. where In S and D,Dp, In S2, In S3 are the natural logarithms of the physical areas of the recreation sites 3 are their respective distances2 from this point. The distance cut-off for this study was arbitrarily set at 500 miles. This means, in effect, that we are dealing with the opportunity to recreate at sites within a 1 day drive from the origin of the recreators. The measures of supply potential (SP) and population potential (PP), once calculated, can be combined to express accessibility. In general, where the supply potential is high and the population is low, there is a high degree of accessibility to recreation sites. This accessibility is defined in terms of an opportunity ratio calculated for each point by the equation: Data Source The demand measure, here termed population potential, is the imaginary pressure one would feel as a result of the proximity of other people. For example, a person would feel less pressure of population in northern Quebec than near Montreal. One way of computing the total pressure at any point is to consider that the pressure from each of the cities and towns in Canada drops off with distance. For example, if a person is at a point 20 miles from town A (population 10,000) and 50 miles from town B (population 6,000), then the pressure at that point would be: 10,000 people 6,000 people PP= 620 people/miles 20 miles 50 miles Canada, Department of Indian and Northern Affairs, 1969 Canada Outdoor Recreation Demand Study Facility Inventory, unpublished data. SCALE 1:2,200,000 (Approximately) 0 25 50 The opportunity ratio is converted into an Opportunity Quotient through adjustment so that the average is given the value of 100, the rest ranging above and below this figure. It is this Opportunity Quotient which is contoured on the above map. It can be seen, for example, that residents of Quebec City have approximately 1.71 times as much recreation opportunity, as defined here, as the residents of Toronto (120/70), while those of Ottawa have 1.57 times as much recreation opportunity (110/70). Special acknowledgement is made to Dr. J.H. Ross and his assistants of the Outdoor Recreation- Open Space Division, Lands Directorate, for the preparation of this map and contribution to the text. Kilometres 25 Medium To High Density Residential 100 Kilometres Low Density Residential Other Associated Urban Uses RURAL FARM AND RURAL NON-FARM POPULATION Industrial Extractive Cropland Cultivated Pasture Population Density 1971 persons per square mile Feed Lots Under Cropland Pasture 1971 POPULATION PYRAMIDS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC Rough Pasture Open Grassland 4074- 20610 URBAN Orchards, Vineyards, Horticulture MALE FEMALE URBAN POPULATION Woodland SCALE 1:1,000,000 (Approximately) 0 25 Improved Farmland Percentage Change 1951-1971 Scrub Woodland Kilometres 25 75 Kilometres Renfrew Outdoor Recreation .GHANBY Water Huntsville PERCENTAGE Land of Class 1 or 2 Capability for Agriculture Cowansvillo RURAL NON-FARM In 1961, this land parcel was classed as extractive, indicated by the letter E. In 1971, the land use of the same parcel changed to scrub woodland as indicated by the shade of green. Major Cities and Towns Q ONTARIO QUEBEC jr-J Information not available Definitions of terms may change from one Census to another. The following are the 1971 census definitions: MALE FEMALE Population density patterns are also indicated by isolines Bancroft Area of Farmland - all farmland including areas under crops, improved pasture, summer fallow, other improved land, woodland and other unimproved land. (Graph applies to the study area) indicates no change in land use, 1961-1971 n/ Farmland This map illustrates the change in improved farmland acreage by census subdivision units between 1951 and 1971. The purpose is not so much to provide a specific value for each sub division, but rather to indicate the pattern of this land use change in the Windsor-Quebec region. The term 'improved farmland', indicating areas under crops, improved pasture, summer fallow, as well as other improved uses, is utilized in preference to 'total farmland' which includes un improved acreage (woodlots, wasteland, marsh etc.). Between 1951 and 1971, many alterations occurred in census division (county) and census subdivision (municipality) boundaries. The greatest number of modifications occurred in Quebec and in those areas of Ontario converted to Regional or District Municipalities. Such areas underwent considerable reorganization making comparison between 1951 and 1971 data very difficult. However, boundary changes were taken into consideration wherever possible. The area of agricultural land reported for each subdivision is defined as that land operated by farmers with headquarters in that subdivision. Where a census farm is composed of several parts located in different municipalities, the Census reports the complete holding as one unit in the municipality in which the headquarters is located. Hence, a sale of land in one census subdivision to a farmer with headquarters in another subdivision would result in a loss of improved acres for the first municipality and a gain for the second, accord ing to census figures. In fact, the land under improved farm use may remain unchanged for both subdivisions. This is a function of the census definition and appears to be a minor factor in the change of improved farmland. Agricultural data were derived from published and unpublished census material for 1941, 1951, 1956, 1961 and 1966, but only preliminary statistics were avail able for 1971. A net loss in excess of3,000,000acres of improved farmland occurred in the Windsor-Quebec study area between 1951 and 1971. In marginal farming regions, the abandonment or retire ment of farms in response to unprofitable farming conditions accounts for the decrease of improv ed farmland. This is unlikely in areas adjacent to urban centres where continuing land require ments for immediate development and expansion result in farm sales to non-farm buyers and the subsequent conversion of land from rural to urban use. iver Under agricultural use, lower capability land cannot fully substitute for higher capability land. It is estimated that Class 3 land will produce only 64 per cent of the yield of Class 1 land. Housing and industrial complexes located on prime agricultural land have permanently destroyed such land for farming. In selecting or allowing certain land uses from the total range of possibilities, consideration must be given to the number of acres in each class of this limited land resource, as well as to its capability and productivity under various uses. The degree of agricultural self-sufficiency of the Windsor-Quebec region, and of Canada as a whole, will be seriously restricted should the loss of good farmland continue at the present rate. of influences and controls which determine the course of such events are only partly under stood, as is the nature of social, political, economic and environmental consequences which may result from continuing to forfeit irreplaceable prime agricultural land. It is clear that less land under agricultural use is not in itself detrimental; the retirement of farms in marginal or unproductive regions does not constitute a serious threat to the farming industry as a whole. However, the spatial location and the agricultural capability of the land relinquished are of critical importance. Land of Class 1 and 2 capability for agriculture is a limited resource. Much of the remaining prime farmland is adjacent to urban areas. The trend of decrea sing acreage in improved and unimproved farmland is accelerating; the greatest loss on census records occurred between 1966 and 1971. The largest acreage losses appeared in urbanizing regions as cities continued to expand in order to accommodate increasing numbers of people. Social as well as land use changes and conflicts are prevalent in the fringe, characterized by the wasteful conversion of farmland to idle or vacant land, and eventually to urban use. The problems associated with urban pressures on land are evident, the solutions are less so. They do, however, warrant substantially greater concern and consideration than they have received to date. Number of Farms (census farms) - number of agricultural holdings of 1 acre or more with sales of agricultural products during the previous 12 months of $50.00 or more. (Graph applies to the study area) BOUNDARIES Total Capital Value (farms) - includes land and buildings (when being used for agri cultural purposes), machinery and equipment (present market value), livestock and poultry, for census farms. The value reported is meant to be an estimate of the market value, not the original, replacement or assessed value. (Graph applies to the study area) County GEORGIAN BAY Town Orillia SCALE 1:50,000 Proposed Airport Owen Population Density This population density isoline map was prepared using GPCP, a General Purpose Contour ing Program with 1971 census population data. The initial data selection included all census municipal population centroids (the population centroids of cities, towns, villages, townships/ parishes and Indian Reserves) and their associated density per square mile within the study area. The data originated from two census files: the geography tape file containing Enumeration Area (EA) population centroids in Universal Transverse Mercator units and the population file contain ing EA population totals. EAs from the two files were matched by municipality code and Electoral District/EA code to accumulate population totals and to generate weighted centroid values for the municipal units. X and Y co-ordinates were then calculated. The EA centroids were converted from Universal Transverse Mercator to latitude and longitude for precision and speed of cal culation. These coordinates were then converted to Lambert Conformal Conical Projection to comply with the base map. GPCP is a contouring program and assumes a continuous distribution of statistics, in this case, the municipality population centroids and their densities. A small grid size as well as a large number of adjoining points were set as constants for the running of GPCP for the maximum smoothing effect. Certain adjustments to the data were made for the final isoline map. The original data selection created a problem. Many small adjacent villages with small absolute populations but high population densities appeared as large, high density geographic areas due to the techniques used for maximum smoothing. On the other hand, some large cities, designated as a single municipality (one observation point) with a considerably higher value than the sur rounding rural townships, did not appear initially in proper proportion. Data were adjusted in two ways. First, census villages were deleted except for the predominantly rural areas. Time cons traints prevented amalgamating villages with their surrounding townships/parishes, possibly a preferable technique. Secondly, cities and towns inadequately represented initially, had arbi trary points proportionate to their absolute population added to the data, assuring a more real istic representation of these centres. In addition, some manual adjustment of population density isolines was necessary. Farm Population - all persons, regardless of their occupation, living in a dwelling situated on a census farm. (Graph applies to the study area) Rural Farm Population - all persons living in dwellings situated on census farms in rural localities. (Graph applies to all counties, wholly or partly located within the study area) 2 Miles PERCENTAGE Sound Metres 1000 3000 Metres LAKE RURAL FARM This inset identifies land use changes between 1961 and 1971 for a portion of the 170,000 acre study area surrounding the 18,000 acre Toronto II Airport Site; the same portion is illustrated on the Land Dynamics inset. Changes in land use were determined from air photos for the years 1961 and 1971. A land use map was compiled for each of the two years. Modifications to the basic land use classification of the Canada Land Inventory were made to accommodate the particular mix of urban, rural and transitional land uses that are most significant in the urban fringe. The final mapping scale was 1:50,000; the minimum size of a legible mapping unit was, therefore, approximately five acres on the ground or a square with one-eighth inch sides on the map. While the evidence of urbanization may not appear dramatic in a quantitative sense, it is nonetheless clear. Between 1961 and 1971, approximately 30,600 acres or 18 per cent of the total study area changed in use. Among the 13 categories of land use, only three (cropland, rough pasture and orchards-horticulture) experienced a net loss while the remaining 10 categories gained acreage. The incidence of residential land use is a critical indicator of urbanization in the fringe. Al though total acreage in residential use remained relatively modest during the 10 year period, low and medium density residential acreages doubled. In addition, other urban-oriented uses such as industrial, extractive, outdoor recreation and associated urban uses exhibited sizeable increases in area. Pits and quarries, common to most metropolitan centres, are tangible evidence of urban development pressures. Where such extractive operations coincide with high quality amenity resources (such as on the Oak Ridge Moraine in Uxbridge and Whitchurch-Stouffville - an area of increasing attraction for the rural residents), the likelihood of an uncompromising land use conflict arises. Outdoor recreation land uses account for less than two per cent of all land in the total study area in 1971 but this land use increased considerably during the previous 10 year period. The most dramatic fluctuations in the land use system of the study area involved the cropland/ pasture combination. Cropland sustained the largest decrease in acreage with a reduction of nearly two-thirds, from 13,000 acres to 5,000 acres. Cropland/pasture was converted to all categories except water; especially large amounts were lost to rough pasture, woodland and scrub woodland. Loss of cropland/pasture to the urban-oriented uses of the extractive and re sidential categories was also considerable. A good deal of trading ol uses occurred. About 20,300 acres or 66 per cent of the land use change occurring in the study area between 1961 and 1971 represented exchanges among uses rather than net losses to particular uses. For example, during this period, extractive land increased by 352 acres at the expense Of scrub woodland, while scrub woodland increased by 354 at the expense of extractive land. Vnth the exception of extractive land use, land use exchanges are largely restricted to non-urban uses. With only trivial exceptions, land once converted to urban use remains in urban use. Because few previous land use studies have been able to examine change over a period of time, the predominance of land use exchange over change in this study must be viewed as an interesting phenomenon. It is particularly significant when the spatial characteristics of these exchanges are noted. fringe may be determined to a greater degree by land quality than by distance from the urban agglomeration. Certain cropland on good agricultural land adjacent to the outer edge of the city has resisted urban development while less productive agricultural land farther out in the fringe has been converted to outdoor recreation and part-time hobby farming. Another interesting feature is the location of a large tract of woodland close to Toronto. It has been suggested that the land rent gradient and the demands of the urban ecosystem result in a zonation of rural land uses concentric to the urban centre, with woodland on the outer periphery forced farther out as the urban centre expands. The increase of woodland in the Toronto urban fringe seems to be evidence to the contrary. Much of this acreage increase occurred on the Oak Ridge Moraine in Uxbridge Township where full-time farmers are being replaced by part-time hobby farmers. This area possesses the least agriculturally productive but most scenic land in the study area, and hobby farmers have been inclined to return some of their land to woodland and scrub woodland. Although the classification employed in this study is the familiar 'use' type, information on 'purpose' is implicit in the changes in land use patterns that have emerged during the decade. From these changes, it is possible to gain further insights into future land uses in the study area. If, in the future, agricultural land is to become increasingly significant for food production and as an open space amenity resource, the direction and finality of the conversion process should be cause for concern in the urban fringe of the larger urban areas in Canada. This inset was compiled from an original map manuscript prepared by Dr. Larry R.G. Martin of the University of Waterloo, for the Department of the Environment. The text was abstracted from his report, Land Use Dynamics: The Toronto II Airport Study (Part II - Land Use Patterns and Land Use Changes), to be published by the Lands Directorate, Department of the Environment. Data Sources* and References Rural Non-Farm Population - all persons living in rural localities in dwellings other than those situated on census farms. (Graph applies to all counties, wholly or partly located within the study area) Urban Population - all persons living in: (1) incorporated cities, towns and villages with a population of 1,000 or over; (2) unincorporated places of 1,000 or over, having a population density of at least 1,000 per square mile; (3) the urbanized fringe of (1) or (2). (Graph applies to all counties, wholly or partly located within the study area) SIMCOE MALE FEMALE Canada, Department of the Environment, Lands Directorate, Canada Land Inventory, Soil Capa bility for Agriculture, Report No. 2, Ottawa, 1972 IARRIE Canada, Department of the Environment, Lands Directorate, Canada Land Inventory, unpub lished Soil Capability for Agriculture maps, to be published by the Lands Directorate ETERBOROUGH Canada, Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1951 Census of Canada, Agriculture, Vol. VI, 1956 Census of Canada, Agriculture Bulletins 2-5 and 2-6, 1961 Census of Canada, Agriculture, Vol. V, 1966 Census of Canada, Agriculture, Vol. IV, 1971 Census of Canada, Agriculture Catalogues 96-706, 96-707 and unpublished data Data Sources Canada, Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1941 Census of Canada, Population Vol. I and II, Agriculture, Vol. VIII, 1951 Census of Canada. Population, Vol. I, Agriculture, Vol. VI, 1956 Census of Canada. Population Bulletin 1-7, Agriculture Bulletins 2-5 and 2-6, 1961 Census of Canada, Population, Vol. I, Agriculture, Vol. V, 1966 Census of Canada, Population, Vol. I, Agriculture, Vol. IV, 1971 Census of Canada, Population Catalogue 92-709, Agriculture Catalogues 96-706, 96-707, 96-721, 96-723, 96-728, 96-730 and 96-731, Dictionary of the 1971 Census Terms Catalogue 12-540 and unpublished data. BELLEVILLE KINGSTON Soil Capability The soil capability classification for agricultural purposes is one of a number of interpretive groupings made from soil survey data. The seven classes group the soils according to their poten tial and limitations for agricultural use. The first three classes are considered suitable for sus tained production of common cultivated crops under certain conditions. A combination of the two highest capability classes, including soils having no significant limitations in use for crops, and soils having only moderate limitations that restrict the range of crops or require moderate conservation practices, is shown on the map. Class 3 soils, while capable of sustaining agricul tural production, have moderately severe limitations, and are excluded from the focus of this study. It should be noted that the area of Class 1 and 2 land for agriculture, shown on the map, does not equal the amount of land available to agriculture. Much of the land is already occupied by cities, towns, highways, parks, etc., and additional areas have been designated for future urban expansion. The present land market, which determines the choice of land use from among the alter natives, is not completely satisfactory. In the vicinity of urban centres where competition for land is particularly intense, the weak competitive position of agriculture is critical. Land of high qua lity for agriculture is also of high quality for other uses. Such competition tends to increase the price of land beyond that which agriculture can support and consequently farmland is retired. Canada, Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1951 Census of Canada. Population, Vol. I, 1956 Census of Canada, Population Bulletin 1-7, 1961 Census of Canada, Population, Vol. I, 1966 Census of Canada, Population, Vol. I, 1971 Census of Canada. Population Catalogues 92-702, 92-705, 92-706. 92-709, 92-715, 92-754, 92-755, Geography Catalogue 98-701 and un published data.* ywhitchurcl i^touffville Trenton Aurora Cobourg Dean, W.G., ed., and G.J. Matthews, Economic Atlas of Ontario, University of Toronto Press, Toronto, 1969. From other findings in this study, it is possible to suggest that land for crops on the urban RKHAM PERCENTAGE RICHMOj Urbanization and the rapid spread of rural low density residential areas have given rise to some of the most startling changes in land use. Many attempts have been made to quantify the rate at which land, mostly agricultural, is surrendered to expanding cities and increasing urban pressures; estimates range from less than 200 to more than 1,000 acres lost per 1,000 increase in population. The process by which a parcel of land is altered from a rural use, through various stages of transition, to an urban or urban-related use, is extremely complex. That Canada has evolved from a rural country to an urban nation is fact. But the variety and particular combination Ontario, Department of Agriculture and Food. Canada Land Inventory, ARDA Branch, Land Use Capability for Agriculture, Toronto, 1970.* HAWA .Vaughan Data Source Canada, Statistics Canada, 1971 Census of Canada, Population Catalogue 92-715, Ottawa, 1973. Special acknowledgement is extended to T. Fisher and J. Babcock of the Land Management Information Systems Division, Lands Directorate, for the preparation of the population density isoline plot, and to Miss S. Baulne of the Census Division, Statistics Canada for assistance in obtaining agriculture data. Lithwick, N.H., Urban Canada: Problems and Prospects, prepared for the Honourable R.K. Andras, Minister Responsible for Housing, Government of Canada, Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Ottawa, 1970. Bibliography Bogue, D.J., Metropolitan Growth and the Conversion of Land to Non-Agricultural Uses, Studies in Population Distribution No. 11, Population Research and Training Center, University of Chicago, and Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems, Miami University, Oxford, Ohio, 1956. ieorgetown; A Nelson, J.B., and D.N. Nicolson, Ontario's Shrinking Farm Lands, Ontario Department of Agri culture, Farm Economics and Statistics Branch, Toronto, 1960. Noble, H.F., Changes in Acreage - Occupied Farm Land, 1941 to 1966, Ontario Department of Agriculture and Food, Farm Economics, Co-operatives and Statistics Branch, Toronto, 1968. Port Credit Bourne, L.S., and M.J. Doucet, Dimensions of Metropolitan Physical Growth: Land Use Change Metropolitan Toronto, University of Toronto, Centre for Urban and Community Studies, Research Report No. 38, Toronto, 1970. unmuum u_ H Parkinson, T.E., Passenger Transport in Canadian Urban Areas, Canadian Transport Commission, Systems Analysis Branch, Queen's Printer, Ottawa, 1971. OAKVILLE Bourne, L.S., and R.D. MacKinnon, eds., Urban Systems Development in Central Canada: Selected Papers, University of Toronto, Department of Geography Research Publication No. 9, Uni versity of Toronto Press, Toronto, 1972. RESIDENTIAL GROWTH Before 1950 Pearson, N„ "Agriculture and Land Planning," Paper presented at the Plant Research Institute, Central Experimental Farm, Canada Department of Agriculture, Ottawa, January 12, 1973. CAMBRIDGE (O GATINEAU PARC TEMPLETON BURLINGTON Canada, Department of Agriculture, Economics Branch, Selected Statistical Information on Agriculture in Canada, Ottawa, 1969. iHERBROOKE Punter, J.V. The Impact of Exurban Development on Land and Landscape in the Toronto-Centred Region; 1954-1971, unpublished report submitted to the Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Ottawa, 1974. undas GATINEAU -v—^Grimsbi Tags; 12 Canada, Report of the Federal Task Force on Agriculture, Canadian Agriculture in the Seventies, Queen's Printer, Ottawa, 1969. Niagara-on-the-Lake Racine, J.B., "Exurbanisation et Metamorphisme Peri-Urbain," Revue de Geographie de Montreal Vol. XXI, no. 2, Departement de Geographie de I'Universite de Montreal, Montreal, 1967. LAND USE 1972 FORD POINTE- Centre for Resources Development, University of Guelph, Planning for Agriculture in Southern Ontario, ARDA Report No. 7, prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food, ARDA Branch, and the Canada Department of Regional Economic Expansion. Guelph. 1972. Commercial GATINEAU Racine, J.B., "L'Evolution Recente du Phenomene Peri-Urbain Nord-Americain: les observations traditionnelles," Revue de Geographie de Montreal, Vol. XXIV, no. 1, Les Presses de L'Uni- versitede Montreal, Montreal, 1970. Industrial NIAGARA FALLS SARNL Clawson, M„ Suburban Land Conversion in the United States, Resources for the Future Inc Baltimore, 1970. Private and Public Open Space Ray, D.M., D.M. Paterson, and L.O. Gertler, Trends, Issues and Possibilities for Urban Development in Southwestern and Central Ontario, a series of studies prepared for the Ontario Economic Council, Toronto, 1970. Pelhan ORLEANS Greenbelt STE-CATHFRIN Crerar, A.D., "The Loss of Farmland in the Growth of Metropolitan Regions of Canada," in Resour ces for Tomorrow, Supplementary to Vol. I and II, Queen's Printer, Ottawa, 1962. Rockcliffe, Airport Federal Parks Ross, J.H., A Measure of Site Attraction, Department of the Environment, Lands Directorate, Occasional Paper No. 2, Ottawa, 1973. Doxiadis, C.A., Emergence and Growth of an Urban Region, Vol. I, II and III, Detroit, 1967. Phrt Co Bow Other Federal Lands iirncoe Gertler, L.O., ed., Planning the Canadian Environment, Montreal, 1968. Russwurm, L.H., "Expanding Urbanization and Selected Agricultural Elements: Case Study, Southwestern Ontario Area, 1941-1961," Land Economics, Vol. XLIII, No. 1, February 1967. Russwurm, L.H., Development of an Urban Corridor System, Toronto to Stratford Area 1941-1966, Ontario Department of Treasury and Economics, Regional Development Branch Research Paper No, 3, Toronto, 1970. PLACE VILLE MARIE BOUNDARY LEGEND Gottmann, J., "The Urbanization Phenomenon and Its Implications," Plan Canada, Special Issue, May 1971. HULL Provincial Proposed New Town DORCHESTER Hind-Smith, J., and L.O. Gertler, "The Impact of Urban Growth on Agricultural Land: A Pilot Study," in Resources for Tomorrow, Supplementary to Vol. I and II, Queen's Printer, Ottawa, 1962. Champlain Park I ickburn lamlet Russwurm, L.H., The Urban Fringe in Canada: Problems, Research Needs, Policy Implications, prepared for the Ministry of State for Urban Affairs, unpublished, 1973. Howard, J.F., "The Impact of Urbanization on the Prime Agricultural Lands of Southern Ontario,1 unpublished M.A. thesis, University of Waterloo, 1972. LAKE ST. CLAIR AYLMER Mountain View Schmid, A.A., Converting Land from Rural to Urban Uses, Resources for the Future Inc., Balti more, 1968. 1970 to Present Krueger, R„ ed., Urban Problems: A Canadian Reader, Toronto, 1971 Shaw, M.F., and E.K. Culley, Urban Access in the Canadian Corridor, Canadian Transport Commis sion, Systems Analysis Branch, Queen's Printer. Ottawa. 1972. Langlois, C., "Problems of Urban Growth in Greater Montreal," in Regional and Resource Planning in Canada, (Revised Edition) ed. by R.R. Krueger et al. Toronto, 1970. Ottawa City 1945 PLACE 1955 to Present BONAVENTURE '■L&HJOin, deschEnes; ST-JACQUES 1' 1 i'i 1111 rr quLbec- ste-fo; VIEW -green lossom Park Kanata MONTREAL Bells Corners^ Irend Village Clearview .Merivale Proposed New Town Manordale CHANGE IN ACRES 1951-1971 Merivah Garden: DATE OF BUILDINGS g 6,000-11,999 INCREASE 0-5,999 In Quebec, loss of agricultural land is quite pronounced in the margins of the study area where less favourable physiographic, climatic and economic conditions discourage farming. Here, smaller farms have been consolidated and some of the poorer land removed from agriculture. In certain regions, such as Lac Brome and Lac Memphr6magog, farming has given way to recreation interests or to a different type of agriculture, hobby farming. Many of the pockets of orchards have succumbed to rising production costs and strong competition for the land from other uses. Many of the remaining agricultural areas, not immediately adjacent to urban centres, are in pasture, grasses and feed grains. Due partly to the better soils and to the proximity of the large urban market of Montreal and vicinity, market gardening and specialty farming occur on the islands and south shore, mainly west of the Richelieu River. To some extent the same is true of the north shore where specialty farming, such as the tobacco crop of the Lanoraie-Lavaltrie area, is found. As in Ontario, these critical market gardening areas are under increasing pressure from other land uses, particularly residential. Like Toronto, Montreal has grown largely at the expense of the land resource which feeds it. HEIGHT OF BUILDINGS Ottawa Glen Cairm International Airport OTTAWA-HULL 1-3 Floors 4-12 Floors SCALE 1:8,880 (Approximately) 0 500 1000 Metro 13-24 Floors SCALE 1:3,850,000 (Approximately) SCALE l:100,000vfApproximately) Vacant Property (land without buildings) BOUNDARIES over 25 Floors Parks Metres 200 600 Metres International Kilometres 100 200 Kilometres Kilometres 1 6 Kilometres Throughout the study area, many of the trends in farming are reason for immediate concern. In excess of 7,000,000 acres of total farmland in the Windsor-Quebec study area were retired between 1951 and 1971. This net loss, representing a drop of nearly 25 per cent of the 29,300,000 acres classified as farmland in 1951, is not only a continuation but an acceleration of an esta blished trend. Between 1966 and 1971, 2,700,000 acres were retired. Of the total 7,000,000 acres lost, nearly one half was 'improved farmland'. Such loss of agricultural land was due to many factors, chiefly the abandonment or retirement of farms, and sales to non-farm buyers. This trend was accompanied by a decline of farm population, in excess of one half million people. In the 20 year period, farm population dropped 46 per cent from 1,138,739 to 617,919 in the Windsor- Quebec study area. This movement of people and particularly of youth away from agriculture significantly affects the strength and vitality of the rural social organization and may indicate a further decline in the nurrtber of farms and farm population in the future. Between 1951 and 1971, the number of farms in the study area fell from 224,524 to 137,654. With intensification and consolidation in agriculture, a decreasing proportion of these farms are operated on a small scale. At the same time, the annual volume of production has experienced a strong increase, in part due to the trend to intensification, the implementation of new technology and increased capital investment. Data Sources Canada, Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1951 Census of Canada, Agriculture, Vol. VI, 1956 Census of Canada, Agriculture Bulletins 2-5 and 2-6, 1961 Census of Canada, Agriculture, Vol. V, 1966 Census of Canada, Agriculture, Vol. IV, 1971 Census of Canada, Agriculture Catalogues 96-706, 96-707 and unpublished data. Provincial to be at least socially and aesthetically desirable to incorporate more green spaces and parks into the mixture of commercial, business, industrial, financial and other functions of the downtown areas. Is this possible? Much of the land in any CBD is devoted to the transportation, care and parking of private vehicles. Is there a better alternative to the present ratio of public and private transportation? In the future development of CBD districts, what options will ensure sound social, economic and environmental management of these vital downtown areas? A distinctive feature of the centre of Montreal is the growing network of underground tunnels linking the metro, hotels, and office and commercial complexes. The growth of this network has been favoured by both the climate and the physical structure of the terrain. The convenience of the tunnel system is an important attraction in the downtown area. New structures, including apartment buildings, are planned to link into this network. The project to relocate the Trans- Canada Highway underground through the centre of Montreal is another facet of this exploitation of underground space in the CBD. As the map shows, there has been recent construction in a variety of areas within the CBD. The lull that followed the building boom of the mid-1960s, has now given way to another rise in building activity. Newly announced projects such as the Place Desjardins and the Marc Carrifere projects illustrate the recent expansion towards the east, and other projects, like that of Canadian Pacific, indicate further growth to the west. Development is occurring throughout the central city, and much land shown as vacant on this map is presently under construction or soon will be. A sizeable amount of land which is mapped as vacant is actually used for parking purposes. This land and that used for streets and highways constitute the significant portion of downtown area devoted to the automobile. Despite its large daytime population, downtown Montreal has only a small number of parks. The city itself and the surrounding region are very poorly endowed with parks of any size, and Montreal ranks well below most other North American cities in the amount of parkland available to its population. The legal municipalitiy of Montreal has 2.0 acres per thousand people which compares unfavourably with the generally accepted standards, which range between 20 and 30 acres per thousand. The region of Montreal, an area encompassing a 100 mile radius from the centre of the city, fares little better; 5.8 acres per thousand people. With regard to the future of city centres, many questions and problems persist. It would seem The central business district (CBD) of Montreal was defined by the City Planning Department in 1964 as covering an area of about 1,325 acres. Roughly half of this, the area shown on the inset, represents the region that has been revitalized and transformed since the early sixties. Beginning with the six major projects (including Place Ville Marie) completed by 1965, the skyline of the Dorchester Blvd. area has been radically changed. These developments have helped re-establish the CBD as a thriving business and commercial area, able to compete with the large shopping centres in the suburbs. The primary functions of the downtown area are business and commerce. Of the approximately 150,000 people who work in this area of about 1 square mile, business employs 75 per cent and some 15,000 people work in Place Ville Marie alone. (The daytime population of the CBD is over 200,000.) St-Jacques has been the financial centre of Montreal since 1817. As well as the stock exchange, there are branches of every Canadian bank here. Commercial activities account for about 30,000 members of the downtown labour force, divided among the 275 small shops along the Ste-Catherine Street axis (between Guy and St-Laurent) and the establishments in the base ment promenades of skyscrapers. There are at least 200 of these in skyscrapers, with dozens more to be added as each new skyscraper is finished. In Place Ville Marie, for example, there are 70 establishments, while Place Bonaventure contains 75, and Place Victoria, 30. As well, majoi depart ment stores such as Morgan's, Eaton's and Ogilvy's have been represented along Ste-Catherine since the turn of the century.The residential function of this part of Montreal is relatively less important and the dwellings are concentrated in two areas. To the northwest, a series of expensive high-rise apartments has recently been constructed, and in the northeast, some of the original houses of Old Montreal have been restored as dwellings. Some industrial activity still remains, primarily in the garment and fur industries in the northeastern and southern parts of the CBD. About 60 per cent of the residual industrial workers are located along Bleury Street. During the past few decades there has been an extremely rapid increase in the urban popula tion of Canada. The Economic Council of Canada determined that at the present time, 3 out of every 4 Canadians live in cities or towns, and estimated that by 1980, 80 per cent of the population will be urban and 60 per cent of these will be concentrated in the 29 largest cities. Ottawa-Hull is the fourth largest metropolitan area in Canada and the third largest in the study area. The phenomenon of rapid urbanization occurring in the Ottawa area is considered typical of the growth of all large metropolitan centres in Canada. In the 20 year period, from 1951 to 1971, the population increase for the census metropolitan area was 113.7 per cent. However, the most rapid growth of population has occurred beyond the city limits. The population of the central area (cities of Ottawa and Hull) increased 49 per cent since 1951, and the population of the remaining metropolitan area increased a remarkable 550 per cent. Another trend which coincides with the rapid growth of the urban population is the increase in the cost of new housing. A survey conducted by the Urban Development Institute of Ontario indicates the rise in price of new detached homes in major Canadian cities. In 1961, the cost of a new single-family detached house in Ottawa was $15,772 and in 1971, was $30,955, a 96 per cent increase in the total price. The value of a standard 50-foot lot incurred an increase of 147 percent in the 10 year period. The price of a comparable dwelling in Montreal in 1961 was $13,222, which subsequently increased 36 per cent to $18,042 in 1971. In this city, the cost of the lot increased only 30 per cent. Toronto has the highest cost of housing in Canada. In 1961 a new detached house cost $17,368 and in 1971 it cost $32,567, an increase of 87 per cent. During this same period, Toronto had an increase of 139 per cent in the average lot price. Partly in reaction to this high cost of housing, the trend has been to build more multiple- dwelling units. In 1949, multiple units constituted only 14 per cent of the new houses built but by 1972, over 75 per cent were multiple dwellings. This current trend is probably exceptional but in the long term multiple-dwelling units are likely to predominate. As a measure to control the sprawl beyond Ottawa city limits, a greenbelt was planned by the National Capital Commission. Acquisition was begun in late 1958 and was scheduled for com pletion during 1965-66. This belt, rural in character, was designed to provide a limit to the exten sion of the municipal services and urban development of the central city. Residential develop ment began to 'leapfrog' over the greenbelt and several communities (eg. Kanata) have become well established in the last few years. In 1972, the federal and provincial governments announced the proposed development of a new town on the southeast edge of the greenbelt. The town will have a maximum population of 100,000 and will extend over 5,000 acres of land, most of which has already been assembled. The planning of economically viable, ecologically sound and socially acceptable environments for urban populations is one of the most challenging aspects of urbanization. Extravagant in its consumption of land in the past, urban expansion continues in a disorderly and haphazard pattern in many instances. Areas coming under strong urban influence must sustain the impact of in creased speculation and sales activity, rising land values and a changing tax structure, the influx of non-farm population and non-agricultural land uses, increased non-resident and corporate ownership as well as other socio-economic alterations. Although increasing pressure from urban centres is creating more intensive land use conflicts, existing planning and decision-making bodies at all levels often seem unable to deal effectively with the problems. The longer these land use practice conflicts remain unresolved, the further the alternatives for the future are restricted. Data Sources* and References This inset illustrates the actual acreage change in improved farmland between 1951 and 1971 at the census subdivision level. Southwestern Ontario is the largest area exhibiting rel atively stable farming conditions. This region coincides, in large measure, with prime agricultural land and favourable climatic conditions. The region is well suited to the cultivation of fruits, certain vegetables, tobacco and other cash crops. Here, a young farm population adjusts to changing economic conditions and innovations, and the area has a high agricultural output. In the remainder of southcentral Ontario, the pattern of decrease in improved acreage at the census subdivision level is coincident with the pattern of major urban centres, particularly in the rapidly urbanizing areas along the Lake Ontario fringe and around the Toronto-Centred Region. The specialty fruit farms of this area are at a disadvantage in the land market and continue to succumb to direct and indirect urban uses. Much of the unique Niagara fruit belt, especially important for peaches and grapes, has been irrevocably removed from agriculture. In this region, high land values reflect the strong demand and competition for land among agricultural, residential, industrial and rec reational uses. Toward Ottawa, the townships in the eastern portion of the province and along the St. Lawrence River experienced steady and substantial loss of improved farmland. Less favour able growing conditions, isolation from major provincial agricultural markets, in addition to pressures from urbanization in the Ottawa area account in part for this loss. Finally, the edge of the Precambrian Shield marks an area of consistent and heavy decrease in improved farmland. Here, even less favourable climatic, soil and economic conditions frequently result in marginal or unprofitable situations. Much of the loss of improved land results from the farmers' failure to successfully battle the cost/price differential and from increased demand for recreational land in this region. City or Town TORONTO Canada, Department of Energy, Mines and Resources, National Air Photo Library This inset illustrates percentage change of population for the period 1951-1971, as well as the 1971 population for counties and major urban centres. Where population and population change information is illustrated for a specific city, such information is excluded from any calculations related to that county. Figures apply only to those counties and portions of counties within the study area as defined by this map. Data Sources* and References Canada, Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1951 Census of Canada, Population, Vol. I, 1961 Census of Canada, Population Catalogue 92-539, 1971 Census of Canada, Population Catalogues 92-705, 92-706 and 92-754.* Clark, S.D., The Suburban Society, University of Toronto Press, Toronto, 1966. Lithwick, N H„ and G. Paquet, eds., Urban Studies: A Canadian Perspective, Toronto, 1968. Stone, L.O., Urban Development in Canada: An Introduction to the Demographic Aspects, prepared for Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Census Division, Queen's Printer, Ottawa, 1967. Canada, Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1951 Census of Canada. Population: General Character istics, Vol. IOttawa, 1953, 1961 Census of Canada, Population: General Characteristics, Vol. I, Ottawa. 1962.1971 Census of Canada. Advance Bulletin,Catalogue 92-754, Ottawa, 1972.* POPULATION 1951-1971 Percentage Change Data Sources* and References ST.CATHARINES Beauregard, L., ed., Montreal Field Guide, 22nd International Geographical Congress, Montreal, 1972. Montreal, Service d'Urbanisme, Amenagement Urbain, Centre-Ville, Metro (unpublished map) updated to 1973, Montreal.* Montreal, Service d'Urbanisme, Amenagement Urbain, Age des Batiments (unpublished map) updated to 1973, Montreal.* Montreal, Service d'Urbanisme, Amenagement Urbain, Volumes Construits (unpublished map) updated to 1973, Montreal.* Leonard, J.F., L'evolution de I'occupation du sol dans le Centre-ville de Montreal et les zones limi- trophes (1964-1971), Universite du Quebec, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique- Urbanisation, Notes de Recherche, Note no 2, Montreal, 1973. Appreciation is extended to Mr. Alex Kowaluk of the Physical Planning Division, Housing and City Planning Department, City of Montreal, for his assistance in the preparation of this map. Coleman, A.,The Planning Challenge of the Ottawa Area, Department of Energy, Mines and Resour ces, Policy Research and Coordination Branch, Geographical Paper No. 42, Queen's Printer, Ottawa, 1969. POPULATION 1971 National Capital Commission WINDSOR National Map Library- Public Archives Planning Branch, City of Ottawa SCALE 1:2,560,000 (Approximately) Planning Branch, Regional Municipality of Ottawa-Carleton Urban Devebpment Institute of Ontario, Residential Land Development in Ontario, Toronto, 1972. 150 Kilometres Kilometres 50

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