PINPOINTING GROWING THREATS NATURAL RATES OF CHANGE t Lmmm i/k Greenhouse-Effect Vegetation Zones Ice Age Vegetation 18,000 Years bp 0O Red numbers locate a geographic sampling of growing environmental threats. Green numbers mark improving situations. Global Carbon Dioxide Peru-Ecuador Upwelling Pastures of the Sea People and Planet: A Troubled Partnership Minnesota's Boreal Forest The Continental Garden Population Projections Population Explosion NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC MAGAZINE Produced by the Cartographic Division National Geographie Society And out of the ground made the Lord God to grow every tree that ispleasant to the sight, and good for food; the tree of life also in the midst of the garden, and the tree of knowledge of good and evil. Genesis 2:9 The Bible placed Adam and Eve in an Eden they were soon to lose. Today the approach of a new millennium finds Homo sapiens at a historical transition between a world inherited and one profoundly different—a global biosphere whose vital funetions we have altered. While burgeoning human numbers place unprecedented demands on farmland, forests, and other resources, the expanding techno- logical civilization that made those numbers possible produces changes in the continents' green skins of Vegetation and in the interac- tions between atmosphere, land, oceans, and living organisms that sustain virtually all life on earth. Massive changes have affected planetary life since the earliest life-forms stirred. Conti nents have moved, oceans and mountain ranges have been made and unmade, ages of heat and cold have waxed and waned, and even the atmosphere has changed—as a result of life itself—from one nearly devoid of oxy- gen to one rieh in the life-fueling element. Mass extinetions of species have accompanied some eras of radical change, but always life has survived and evolved. Human dominance of the globe has ushered in a new period of extinetions, primarily by usurping natural habitats. Pollutants in the en- vironment can wreak unforeseen results, among them a global warming trend that could push average temperatures higher than any in the experience of the human race. A "nuclear winter" caused by global war might mean the end of most life-forms. Yet along with potential self-destruction, the present moment of technology's course has delivered tools of knowledge never before in hand, among them earth-sensing satellites that daily report global conditions and Com puters that log and assemble millions of simul- taneous observations. Now able for the first time to watch the global mechanism of life at work, we must hope to comprehend and gain control of our unwitting experiment with the future of the earth. OACID RAIN O WATER POLLUTION O POPULATION PRESSURE ©AIR POLLUTION ©OZONE CONCERNS 16,000 BC 2000 1000 AD I 250 500 750 1000 1250 EARLY HUMANS ORIGINS OF AGRICULTURE EARLY CIVILIZATIONS GROWTH OF CITIES PUBLIC HEALTH AGE OF COLONIALIZATION AGE OF RESOURCE USE O WATER DIVERSION ©TOXIC WASTES SPECIES EXTINCTIONS 0 FISHERIES DEPLETION 0 DEFORESTATION 0 DESERTIFICATION PARKS AND REFUGES 1750 1800 ENVIRONMENTAL LAWS AND TREATIES 1850 1900 1950 2000 FEAST AND FAMINE CLIMATIC WARMING EARTH FROM SPACE THE OIL REVOLUTION THE CHEMICAL ERA Each slmulated map shows present shorelines and reflects global patte rather than site-specific informatior MMligeide pro)Ceti on reide projüction ECUADOR IOOÖ NATIONAL lf1000 GEOGRAPHIC liJOO SOCIETY ENDANGERED EARTH GILBERT M. GROSVENOR, PRESIDENT AND CHAIRMAN WILBUR E. GARRETT, EDITOR JOHN B. GARVER, JR., CHIEF CARTOGRAPHER TEXT BY DOUGLAS B. LEE, NGS Senior Staff Tomorrow's weather will be hotter. Some regions will be drier, others can expect greater preeipitation. This global forecast is based on the increased release ofeertain gases through human activity: methane, nitrous oxide—and C02, which contributes more to the growing green- house effect than the other two com- bined. At present rates ofgrowth the effect of such gases could double by the mid-21st Century, perhaps producing a climate warmer by some four degrees Celsius, leading ultimately to drastic changes in Vegetation. The tropics and some deserts reeeive greater rainfall. Temperate climes become warmer and drier; polar regions experience the greatest warming. Vegetation will adjust, flourishing where favored by tempera- ture and moisture, struggling where conditions deteriorate. Tropical and subtropical rain forests Cold-deciduous broad-leaved forests and woodlands Evergreen needle-leaved forests and woodlands Cold-deciduous needle-leaved forests and woodlands Subtropical drought-deciduous woodlands Tundra Arid grasslands and shrub lands Desert Polar desert and ice Drought-seasonal forests and tall grasslands Mesic grasslands First recognized as a regional issue in Scandinavia, acid rain, snow, andfog kill fish and other aquatic biota and damage forests in Canada, the U. S., and western and central Europe. An estimated 200,000 Square miles of forests in industrial countries are damaged by acid rain or other forms ofair pollution. A problem that wafts across borders, it demands international Solutions. Fertilizers and Urban runoff increase Sedi mentation and skew conditions in estuaries and coastal waters, affecting fisheries. Some rivers, like the Thames, have been cleaned up, with native species reappear- ing. The Caspian, Balde, and Mediterra- nean Seas suffer from large coastal populations and industry. Ports like Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila brew noxious stews. Improvements have been made in Lake Erie. Kenya's 4.1 percent growth rate—the world's highest—will double its 23 million people by 2005. At 2 percent, India would reach 1.6 billion by 2075, rivaling China, with a 1.4 percent rate, as the most popu- lous country. Third World urban areas, such as Manila and Säo Paulo, swellfrom rural migration. Developed countries such as West Germany have seen lowered birth- rates and even populadon decline. Mexico City ranks among the worst of urban environments. Cleanup in Tokyo has reduced smog. Once plagued London and Pittsburgh purged their air. Industries have blighted Vegetation near Sudbury, Ontario, and in the Soviet's Kola Peninsu- la. Motor-vehicle exhaust and power plant emissions dirty the once pristine American West. Cubatäo, Brazil, is one ofthe world's most polluted communities. Man-made chlorofluorocarbons contribute to a deepening hole in upper- atmosphere ozone—a filter of the sun 's life-damaging ultraviolet radiation—ob- served seasonally Over Antarctica. Deple- tions also have been noted over the Arctic and heavily populated mid-latitudes. In contrast, industries and motor vehicles contribute ozone to low-level pollution, but it does not rise to upper levels. Chief building block of organic matter, carbon is also present in the atmosphere, oceans, soils, and rocks. Through physical, chemical, and biologic processes, carbon is transferred between these reservoirs, primarily as carbon dioxide (C02). Deforestation and burning of fossil fuel in the past two centuries have released carbon at an ac- celerated rate. Increasing atmospheric C02 is the prime mover in an antieipated rise in global temperatures that many scientists believe has already begun (the greenhouse effect). A substantialportion ofrecently released C02 is not accounted for by current estimates of transfer rates. This portion is probably taken up by ocean water and marine or ganisms, and perhaps by increased rates of organic growth on land. Satellite-generated estimates of planktonic biomass and terrestrial photosynthetic potential could help in under- standing life's role in long-term climate trends. April 24,1981 Where offshore winds bring deep, cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface, fields of phytoplankton bloom off Peru* in digital images from Nimbus 7 taken three weeks apart. Red and orange by the ocean-color index (above), the massed bloom at far left is concentrated by currents into plumes and eddies in the near image. These shifting patterns of wind, water, and marine life—along a coast comparable in length to that between Long Island and South Caro lina—illustrate how rapidly the oceans can change. Unmeasurable by tradi- tional shipboard sampling, which would take decades to provide a comparable amount of data, the event was recorded by satellite in just minutes. *See on map above The earth of our ancestors wore Conti nental ice a mile thick as far south as the Great Lakes when the most recent glacial epoch peaked 18,000 years ago. Lower sea-surface temperatures and an atmo sphere averaging four to six degrees Cel sius colder than ours today shaped a global climate both more and less hospi- table. A Vegetation model applied to an Ice Age climate model indicates patterns of Vegetation in which some desert areas are wetter than at present, tropical rain forests are smaller and in different loca- tions, and temperate and subtropical for- Life's green foundation, the chlorophyll-bearing plants of land and water harness sunlight to produce organic matter through photosynthesis. At the first tier of the aquatic food web, microscopic free-floating plants called phytoplankton tinge the waters where they thrive, so that surface hues reveal the oceanic regions' relative fecundity. For this portrait, ocean-color readings made by NASA's Nimbus 7 satel lite were averaged over 18 months. Color-code reds and oranges indicate areas of highest produetivity, such as the nutrient-rich polar seas, temperate and tropical continental shelves, and wind-driven upwellings on the western coasts of the Ameri- cas and Africa. Yellows and greens show moderately produetive regions in Pacific and Atlantic equatorial currents, along contesting currents in the North Pacific, and where winter turbulence stirs up nutrients for spring blooms in the North Atlan tic and North Pacific. Light blues such as those off southern Africa show less produetivity. Least fertile are mid-ocean gyres, in purple. Black areas near the Poles are sea ice; those in the Pacific were not monitored. OCEAN-COLOR INDEX .1 Phytoplankton plgment concentrations (milligrams per eubie meter of seawater) Ocean-color data were derived from 20,000 images ac quired between January 1979 and ]une 1980 by the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) on the Nimbus 7 satellite. The biosphere has complex in- teractions by which a change in one element of a natural equation—such as greenhouse warming in the biosphere—initiates changes in other elements—ocean volume, ice, cloud, and vegetative cover, plus earth's reflectivity. The workings of global mechanisms are not well-enough known to predict the outcome of human- induced changes. For 3.5 billion years life and its host planet have conspired in shap- ing the other's evolution. For eons microscopic creatures have trans- formed the chemistry of oceans, at mosphere, and soils. Vegetation helps determine erosion rates, while physical forces, in turn, help shape the patterns of growth. Previous climatic shifts have occurred over lengths of time that allowed flora and fauna to adjust as overall patterns moved. Judged against natural change, man-made global effects bring results at light- ning speed—with consequences feit in just two industrialized centuries. This rapid change and such new ele ments as ozone-destroying chemicals not naturally present hamper our ability to predict the extent or dura- tion of long-term effects. The biosphere's pulse flutters in cycles ranging from seconds to tens of millennia. Plankton may bloom for a day and never be seen by a re- search vessel; trees grow and fall while a forest lives on as an entity. Thus the new space-based ability to measure global change looms large in the trial of nature's latest biologi- cal innovation—humankind, with its capacity to understand and influence the biosphere. ests and woodlands are more widespread. Tundra and high-latitude forests occur much farther south in the Northern Hemisphere and claim the southern end of South America. Inadequate Informa tion on climate precludes depiction of Antarctic data on these maps. April 3,1981 ECUADOR PERU Humans emerge from Ice Age as skilled, equipped hunter-gatherers. Neolithic revolution from food gathering to pro ducing occurs. World population 4 million Beginning of wärmest period in 100,000 years. Domestication oferops and live stock. Invention ofthe plow. Hippocrates leaves a legaey of medical ethics. 'ere derived from historical estimates Romans advance public sanitation. 200 million Polynesians spread across Pacific. Plato recognizes deforestation as causing erosion. Aristotle describes the natural world. Pliny the Eider records observations on natural history. Warm spell quickens Norse exploration. 360 million Moldboardplow and horse collar ex- pand forest Clearing and cultivation. William the Conqueror establishes royal game preserve in England. Marco Polo reports nationwide game laws in China. Once forested regions of Africa, Asia, and Europe feit the hand of humans far back in prehistory, when hunter- gatherers learned to set fires to drive game and clear brush—still practiced by semi-nomadic tribes in Africa. The digging stick marked the tool-using creature's departure from previous evo- lutionary experience. Planting and har- vesting, humans no longer needed to move to eat. Settlements appeared; ani- mals and plants were domesticated. Cultures coalesced on the Tigris-Euphrates, the Nile, and the Indus, giving rise to the earliest civilizations. Organized warfare arrived. Irrigation fed the Fertile Cres- cent; resulting salinization took an early environmental toll. The Fertile Crescent brought the world its first cities in the fourth millennium B.C., as technology engendered more sophisti- cated societies. The sphere of early cities was the adjacent countryside; later they grew from wider trade and imperialism. Rome's baths, aqueduets, and sewers were widely copied. Sanitation has been a major factor in public health improve ments and lower mortality rates. Crowd- ing and squalor have bred epidemics throughout history. The world crossed into its modern age with Columbus's voyage in 1492. Euro pean powers established colonies and trade routes around the globe. Interconti- nental movements of people, plants, animals, and diseases rose sharply. Industry moved into the wilderness in the 19th Century. Commercial logging ex- panded; whalers combed the seas. Rail- roads brought mechanized farming to new regions. Frontiers are exploited to day in Alaska, the Amazon, and Siberia. Tapped for agribusiness, the mighty Colo rado River reaches the sea as a trickle. Stream diversion in China emptied a lake, Lop Nur. A Soviet river-diversion scheme that threatened the regional ecological bal- ance was abandoned. The Nile's Aswan High Dam has depleted farmland ofsilt and the eastern Mediterranean of nutri ents. Overused aquifers are dropping in Africa, Asia, and North America. New Jersey's Meadowlands bear the poi- sons of megalopolis. At New York's Love Canal, a sickened Community was evacu- ated from atop a toxic waste dump. Part of San Diego Bay holds extremely high con centrations of PC Bs. Irrigation has con centrated heavy metals in the Beijing- Tianjin basin and selenium at a California wildlife refuge. Cleaner technology ended mercury poisoning at Minamata, Japan. o RADIATION PERILS Disaster at the Soviet Union's Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in 1986 caused the Single greatest industrial release ofradia- tion, dwarfing an accident at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania. Waste disposal also poses unanswered problems. Several nations test nuclear weapons. Bikini Is landers cannot yet return to a home con- taminated by U. S. testing. Japanese atom bomb survivors suffer radiation effects. Deforestation as in Brazil, Madagascar, and Southeast Asia is the prime cause for the loss of thousands of species a year. Refuges in Africa, North America, and Asia face isolation as biological "islands. Introduced Nile perch devastate Lake Victoria's more than 300 species. Black rhinos are nearly extinet, Florida maria- tees endangered; but sea otters, gray whales, and whooping cranes have come back. In the past 40 years, overfishing and natu ral causes have combined to produce alarming declines in certain Stocks ofan- chovies, sardines, and cod, some followed by resurgences. Pollution also takes a toll. Shellfish dwindle on U. S. coasts. Fisher- men off the Philippines bomb and poison reefs. Antarctic krill harvests may under- mine the food web. U. S. laws have low ered dolphin tolls in Pacific tuna harvests. Life 's greatest storehouse, tropical forests shrink annually by an estimated 80,000 of their total ten million Square miles through expanding agriculture, logging, and devel- opment. Demand for fuel has denuded Af- rican woodland and slopes in Haiti and Nepal—where erosion, landslides, and floods have increased and no cover may remain by 2020. Costa Rican parks pre serve tropical ecosystems. Prolonged drought in the Sahel has coin- cided with population growth, overgraz- ing, and the closing ofpolitical boundaries to disrupt patterns of nomadic life. Result ing pressure on marginal land has sped the spread of desert conditions. Salinization strangles irrigated fields in Australia. Israel has experienced notable success at revegetating deserts, and China has instituted mass plantings for reclamation. »ARY WATERS CANOE AREA SUPERIOR NATIONAL FOREST BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA Mollweide projection LAND-VEGETATION INDEX First study of mortality rates from English parish records The concept of parks as national assets became reality in Yellowstone in 1872. National forests were first set aside in the U. S. in 1891; federal wildlife refuges in 1903. In 1980, 160,000 Square miles of Alaska wilderness reeeived protection. James Watt's steam engine spurs indus trial revolution. All but one of 13 Ameri can Colonies have legal hunting seasons. The 1899 Rivers and Harbors Act first legislated U. S. control of water pollut ants. The 1916 Migratory Bird Treaty be tween the U. S. and Canada initiated international conservation. The 1970s saw new environmental laws. Henry David Thoreau publishes Wai den Charles Darwin writes The Origin of Species. Pennsylvania oilstrike. DDT use banned in U. S. "Nuclear win ter" recognized as possiblt aftermath of Dust Bowl in U. S. mobilizes national nuclear war. resources for conservation. First use of DDT. Nuclear fission achieved. World food produetion could feed more than present numbers, but economic in- equities, politics, and indifference keep about 10 percent of humanity critically malnourished. Famine induced by politi- cal upheaval and war is still a reality. How fast, how far, and howlong climate will warm are unknowns asaverage tem peratures surpass historical ranges: The hottest years in this Century occurred in the 1980s, the hottest decadeon record. Agriculture could shift and s:a levels rise. First photographed in its entirety from a Lunar Orbiter in 1966, earth is a prime target of space research. In the 1990s the U. S. plans a new generation of earth- sensing satellites and a space Station for sustained human Observation. "We think of Vegetation as static. It's vibrant in a way we don't understand," says Dr. Forrest Hall of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. A NASA Landsat satellite monitored boreal forest in northern Minnesota* to delineate internal change over a ten- year period. A color-coded mosaic Charts changed and unchanged areas of Veg etation. Surprisingly, natural processes— normal vegetative succession as well as fires, old age, insects, and wind—altered 50 percent of the protected Boundary Waters Canoe Area in ten years. Still, rates of change from mature forest to deforested and regenerating areas were five to ten times lower there than on logged land outside its borders. *See on map above Mongols depopulate parts of Asia and Europe and contribute to the spread of bubonic plague. The "Black Death re- duces Europe's 80 million by a third in only five years. 350 million A Pennsylvania oil strike launched the modern oil industry in 1859. In 1885 coal surpassed wood as the main source of U. S. energy, to be replaced by oil in 1950. The economics of prices and use indicate perhaps a Century's supply. Columbus opens the age of colonialization. 500 mUlion Spraying of DDT in the 1940s began widespread chemical control of the envi- ronment and major shifts in public health and agriculture. Synthetics brought revo- lutions in industry and such aspects of daily life as housewares and clothing. 14 billion-pr' Unchanged forest Maturing forest Areas of regeneration following disturbance (flre and logging) Areas of natural regresslon (death and disease) Areas of recent human-induced disturbance (logging) Clouds Cloud shadow Water Design: HAROLD E. ABER, JR., Director; John F. Dorr, Bob Pratt; Research: ALICE T. M. RECHLIN, Director; Harry D. Kauhane, Debbie J. Gibbons, Gaither G. Kyhos, Jan Holderness, Carrie E. Pinkerton; Produetion: LEO B. ZEBARTH, Director; David P. Beddot, Charles F. Case, Roland R. Nichols, Kevin P. Allen, Micki A. Moran; Prin :ing and Quality Control: JOHN F. SHUPE, Director; Elie Sabban, Edward J. Holland; Contributing Staff: Stephen P. Wells, Kelly J. Crisp, Scott T. Fort, Jonathan E. Kaut, Gretchen N. Kuhn, Stephanie F. Lane, Eric A. LindstromJon A. Sayre, Sr., Robert F. Shapiro, George E. Stuart, Thomas A. Wall Principal Consultants: Daniel B. Botkin, Professor of Biology and Environmental Studies, University of California at Santa Barbara; Gene Carl Feldman, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Data and Computing Division; Forrest G. Hall and Compton J. Tucker, NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics; Carl Haub and Al*x von Cube, Population Reference Bureau, Inc.; Katharine C. Prentice, NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Institute for Space Studies Additional Sources: University of California at Santa Barbara: Edward A. Keller, Professor of Geology and Environmental Studies, Frank W. Davis, Assistant Professor of Geography, and John E. Estes, Professor of Geography. NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Data and Computing Division: Raul Garza-Robles; Laboratory for Oceans: Wayne E. Esaias, Charles R. McCIain, Jane A. Elrod, and Guillermo P. PodestaInformation Processing DivisionInstitute for Space Studies: Dorothy M. Peteet, Jasmin G. John, Patrice D. Palmer, and Jeffrey A. Jonas. University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science: Robert H. Evans, Professor of Satellite Oceanography, James W. Brown, H. Mark Carle, and Susan E. Walsh. Science Applications Research, Inc.: Donald E. Strebe! and Scott J. Goetz. Butler University: Orie L. Loucks, Director of Holcomb Research Institute As infant and childhood survival rates improve with public health, growing numbers reach childbear- ing age; life expectancies also in crease. The doubling period for world population has shortened from centuries to mere decades. Three ranges project the size of the future population; each as- sumes that birthrates in the next half Century will fall enough to lead to zero growth. j j billion 6 billion 10 billion Population projections are based on United Nations assessments 1/ y 8 billion 5 billion China reaches a billion population in 1981. First case of acquired immune defi- ciency Syndrome (AIDS) identified. China suffers 30 million deaths in tur- moil of Great Leap Forward. Penicillin manufactured and distributed. Infectious-disease rates lowered. World War I ends; 15 million dead. World War II ends; 50 million dead. Edward Jenner shows immunity from smallpox through inoculation; Thomas Malthus links population growth and Potato famine initiates large-scale Irish Immigration to New World. Louis Pas- teur and Robert Koch help prove the germ theory of disease. 2 billion resources. 1 billion The five billion human beings alive today represent probably 6 to 7 percent of all who have lived in our species' 350,000- to 100,000-year genealogy. From perhaps four million at the peak of the last Ice Age, growth accelerated slowly until the industrial revolution 18,000 years later. After a global population surge, birth rates declined in developed countries, and today their populations are near, and even below, zero growth. After World War II quantum improvements in public health were swiftly exported to less devel oped countries, dramatically lowering death rates. Declines in birthrates often lagged behind, causing unprecedented population growth. A majority of man- kind still lives in an agrarian, preindustri- al condition, with birthrates approaching Kenya's eight children per woman. To- day's soaring numbers occur almost whol- ly in nations least able to afford them, where masses live on the edge of survival, often on marginal or unsuitable land. World's first national park dedicated at Yellowstone. U. S. begins to designate national forests. CO2 measurem ent l Rachel Carson's documents DDT's hazards, initiates environmental movement. Of all terrestrial living matter, 95 percent is Vegetation. The Chlorophyll content in dicates the potential for new produetion. The NOAA 7 satellite recorded worldwide land-surface radiation in the visible and near-infrared bands to estimate Chlorophyll and leaf mass. Three years of daily global readings went into this image to map re gional average potential for photosynthesis throughout the continents' green man- tles. Combined with the presentation of ocean plant life, it gives us a first-of-a-kind view of the produetive potential of earth's vegetative biomass. A color-coded index shows highest potential produetion in darkest greens, primarily in rain forests. Next come other tropical and subtropical forests, temperate forests and farmlands, and, surprisingly, some drier regions such as savannas and pampas. Seasonal croplands in North America's Midwest and the Soviet steppes show lower potential for new growth, while boreal forests and the dry Australian outback rank lower still. Deserts, high mountains, and Arctic regions reflect barren conditions. Inland waters appear red. o 1 Minimum Photosynthetic potential Maximum Land-vegetation patterns were derived from data acquired in 15,000 orbits between April 1982 and March 1985 by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA 7 satellite.

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Kartografisch Tijdschrift | 1988 | | pagina 78